The Wire fires only when an event genuinely forks your operating future: a regime change, a currency break, a border closing, a platform rewriting its rules. No cadence, no filler. Each issue is a scenario set, not commentary: the forks, the odds where they can honestly be priced, the observable trigger for each, and the move it implies. Sized so no single call can sink you.
Anatomy of a Wire issue · locked
🔒 The forks: 3–5 scenarios as event sequences, including the one where nothing changes
🔒 The odds: banded where a base rate exists, honestly unpriced where it does not
🔒 The triggers: the observable that confirms each fork, with a date
🔒 The moves: do now · hedge · defer-with-trigger, sized against ruin
🔒 The receipt: every scenario resolves in public. We keep score, including the misses
Anyone can publish predictions. The Wire publishes its resolution criteria with every scenario and grades itself in public once enough have resolved. You should not have to trust a forecast you cannot audit. Here you can.
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